Empirical (Non-Simulation) Studies of Supermajority Thresholds in Direct Democracy

confidence: high · 1 sources

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Working research — not a recommendation.

This page records what the evidence says a policy does, not what anyone should do about it. It has been synthesized from the cited sources but has not been independently reviewed.

What the evidence says

The claims retrieved for this topic come entirely from a single 2026 arXiv paper (Millar-Sáez) built on an agent-based simulation of legislative decision-making — not from observed, real-world direct-democracy institutions. The model studies how approval thresholds (simple majority vs. a 2/3 supermajority) and quorum requirements interact with the number of independent legislators and with polarization to shape "legislative efficiency" and "aggregate social welfare" inside the model. Every number and mechanism below describes what happens inside that simulation, not a measured outcome from an actual legislature or electorate.

Within the model, the approval threshold determines the direction of the relationship between legislator diversity and efficiency. Under simple majority rule in polarized scenarios, efficiency is non-monotonic in the number of independent legislators: it rises to an interior maximum and then declines, a pattern the paper attributes to a transition from unilateral control to pivot-based coalition formation. Under a 2/3 supermajority in the same polarized scenarios, the same increase in independent legislators instead decreases legislative performance, through minority veto dynamics or coordination breakdown. The paper also states that, in highly polarized contexts, simple majority is the only approval threshold modeled that sustains efficiency at all — high thresholds turn legislator heterogeneity into paralysis, while lower thresholds let that same diversity convert into negotiation.

Quorum requirements act as a second, independent lever. More demanding quorums decrease the number of proposals passed and, in some scenarios, decrease aggregate social welfare. Quorum level also interacts with the diversity effect described above: as the quorum requirement rises, the number of independent legislators at which efficiency peaks shifts downward, and at high quorums the interior efficiency maximum disappears entirely.

The paper's own summary claim is that none of these effects belong to a threshold rule in isolation — efficiency is described as an emergent outcome of the interaction between approval thresholds, parliamentary composition, and the coalition structures those thresholds generate, not a fixed property of "simple majority" or "supermajority" on their own.

No claim in this set describes an empirical (non-simulation) measurement of supermajority thresholds in an actual direct-democracy setting — no observed ballot-measure passage rates, no real legislature, no real electorate. For a topic framed as a review of empirical, non-simulation evidence, that absence is itself the main result: the current source base supplies a theoretical mechanism, not a measured one.

Where the evidence splits

No contradictions in the current sources.

Thresholds and dose-response

Between simple majority and a 2/3 supermajority threshold, the effect of increasing independent-legislator diversity on legislative performance reverses: under simple majority it produces an interior efficiency maximum (efficiency rises then falls as diversity increases), while under 2/3 supermajority the same increase in diversity decreases legislative performance, per Millar-Sáez (2026).

On quorum, the source states a qualitative dose-response without a numeric cutoff: as quorum requirements rise, the diversity level at which efficiency peaks shifts downward, and the interior efficiency maximum disappears altogether "at high quorums." The source does not state a specific quorum percentage or rate at which this disappearance occurs.

Open empirical questions

Findings

Under simple majority rule in polarized scenarios, increasing legislator diversity produces a non-monotonic effect on legislative efficiency

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin — single simulation source, no corroborating empirical or independent-model source in the current base
mechanism
transition from unilateral control to pivot-based coalition formation as the number of independent legislators rises
effect
efficiency increases then decreases, with an interior maximum, in a simulated polarized-parliament model
conditions / moderators
holds under simple majority rule specifically; polarized scenarios

Under 2/3 supermajority in polarized scenarios, increasing legislator diversity decreases legislative performance

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: mediumconsensus: thin — single simulation source
mechanism
minority veto dynamics or coordination breakdown as diversity rises under a high approval threshold
effect
decreases legislative performance (no numeric magnitude given in the source)
conditions / moderators
holds under strong (2/3) supermajority; polarized scenarios; reverses the pattern found under simple majority

Approval threshold level determines whether legislator diversity translates into effective negotiation or into paralysis

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin — single simulation source
mechanism
low thresholds allow diversity introduced by independent legislators to convert into negotiation; high thresholds convert the same heterogeneity into paralysis
effect
simple majority is the only approval threshold modeled that sustains efficiency in highly polarized contexts
conditions / moderators
highly polarized contexts specifically

More demanding quorum requirements decrease the number of proposals passed and, in some scenarios, aggregate social welfare

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin — single simulation source
mechanism
not stated beyond the mechanical effect of a higher passage bar reducing the set of approved proposals
effect
decreases proposals passed; decreases aggregate social welfare in certain scenarios
conditions / moderators
"in certain scenarios" for the social-welfare effect; not fully specified which scenarios

Higher quorum requirements shift the efficiency-maximizing number of independent legislators downward and eliminate the interior efficiency maximum at high quorums

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin — single simulation source
mechanism
not stated beyond the described phase-transition-like shift in the model
effect
the diversity level producing peak efficiency decreases as quorum rises; the maximum disappears entirely at high quorum levels (no specific quorum value given)
conditions / moderators
effect intensifies with quorum level; disappearance occurs only "at high quorums"

Legislative efficiency is an emergent property of interacting approval thresholds, composition, and coalition structure, not an intrinsic property of the decision rule alone

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin — single simulation source
mechanism
interaction between approval thresholds, parliamentary composition, and the coalition structures those thresholds generate
effect
no single-variable effect claimed; the finding is that efficiency cannot be attributed to threshold choice in isolation
conditions / moderators
not established beyond the modeled interactions