Longitudinal Persistence of Charter and Voucher Test-Score Effects Beyond 4-5 Years

confidence: high · 1 sources

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Working research — not a recommendation.

This page records what the evidence says a policy does, not what anyone should do about it. It has been synthesized from the cited sources but has not been independently reviewed.

What the evidence says

The claims on this page come from one source, a literature review by Sarah Cohodes (2021, NBER). They cover one question: whether charter and voucher test-score gains last into longer-term outcomes. The page has no voucher-specific claims, and it has no claims that follow test-score effects past 4-5 years. An absence of evidence on vouchers and on long test-score follow-up is itself a result here.

The one direct measurement of a longer-term outcome finds no measured effect. A national group of charters showed benefits for subgroups of charter students and urban schools in lottery-based analyses. That same group showed no overall difference in college enrollment or completion, and no gains for urban charters. The review attributes this to Place & Gleason (2019). This is a single major study, so the direction and size of the result rest on one cohort and one set of regions.

The review also reports that attending some urban charter schools increases college enrollment and voting and reduces risky behavior. It says this evidence comes from only a few sites and has a limited time horizon. It gives no magnitudes for these findings.

For the other adult outcomes, the evidence is missing. The review states that "No Excuses" schools improve academic outcomes. It adds that it remains to be seen whether test score acceleration in these schools translates to college graduation, employment, earnings, and other adult outcomes. It also says there is much less evidence on longer-term charter outcomes than on test-score outcomes. In its words, conclusions about test scores "may or may not presage similar patterns in other outcomes."

Where the evidence splits

The national charter result and the urban-charter result point in different directions on college enrollment. The national group shows no overall difference in college enrollment or completion, and no gains for urban charters. The review also says attending some urban charter schools increases college enrollment. The claims do not state why these differ. The split is unexplained by the sources on this page. The sources give possible ingredients: the national result covers a national group, while the positive result comes from only a few sites. They do not say which difference accounts for the split.

Thresholds and dose-response

No threshold established in the current sources.

Open empirical questions

Findings

A national group of charters with lottery-based test-score benefits shows no measured effect on college enrollment or completion

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin. It rests on one major study, and the review flags a need for confirmation in other cohorts and regions.
mechanism
not established. The claim tests whether test-score gains carry over to college outcomes and finds no carry-over in this sample.
effect
no measured effect on college enrollment or completion, overall or for urban charters. No magnitudes are reported in the claim.
conditions / moderators
holds for the national group of charters studied by Place & Gleason (2019). Subgroup and urban benefits appeared in test-score analyses from lottery-based designs, but not in college outcomes. Other cohorts and regions are not covered.

Evidence on longer-term charter outcomes is limited in time horizon and geographic scope

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin. The review itself describes the evidence base as small.
mechanism
not established.
effect
attending some urban charter schools increases college enrollment and voting and reduces risky behavior, per the review. No magnitudes are given. The evidence comes from only a few sites and has a limited time horizon. Persistence beyond that horizon cannot be assessed from these sources.
conditions / moderators
limited to some urban charters in a few sites. Whether the result holds elsewhere is not established.

The effect of charter test-score gains on college graduation, employment, and earnings is unknown

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: lowconsensus: thin. Very limited evidence exists at longer time horizons, and the review calls for more research.
mechanism
not established. The review states it remains to be seen whether test score acceleration in No Excuses schools translates to these outcomes.
effect
no measured effect can be stated, because the outcomes are not measured in the claims. The review says No Excuses schools improve academic outcomes.
conditions / moderators
not established.

Much less evidence exists on longer-term charter outcomes than on test-score outcomes

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin. A single review states the gap.
mechanism
not applicable. This is a statement about the evidence base.
effect
test-score conclusions "may or may not presage similar patterns in other outcomes," per the review. No magnitudes are given.
conditions / moderators
not established.