UHR Conversion Rates in Non-Enrolled or Treatment-as-Usual Comparison Groups

confidence: high · 1 sources

What the evidence says

The current sources on this page do not report conversion rates for a non-enrolled or treatment-as-usual comparison group. The only evidence is one study of ultra-high-risk patients, Ising (2016), that measured transition to psychosis in a single sample of 185 participants. The claims here give no comparison arm, so no group can be set against another.

In that sample, 32 participants transitioned to psychosis by 18 months. The overall 18-month transition rate was 17.3%. The sources do not say how many of these participants received treatment as usual or what care they had. The rate is therefore a whole-sample figure, not a control-group baseline.

The instantaneous incidence rate rose over follow-up: 0.054 at 6 months, 0.130 at 12 months, and 0.173 at 18 months. Most transitions in this sample therefore came between 6 and 18 months. Mean time from baseline to transition was 491.6 days (SE = 10.2; 95% CI 471.67–511.51), about 16 months.

These figures are direct measurements, and the claims rate their direction and magnitude confidence as high. They come from one study. The page has no second source to compare them with, and no claim states a mechanism.

Where the evidence splits

No contradictions in the current sources.

Thresholds and dose-response

No threshold established in the current sources.

Open empirical questions

What is the transition rate in a non-enrolled comparison group, measured with the same criteria and follow-up window?
What is the transition rate in a treatment-as-usual arm, and how does it differ from the 17.3% whole-sample rate?
Do transition rates differ across other ultra-high-risk cohorts and follow-up lengths?
What causes the rise in incidence between 6 and 18 months?

Findings

Transition to psychosis in a sample of ultra-high-risk patients reached 17.3% at 18 months

confidence — direction: highconfidence — magnitude: highconsensus: thin — one study, no second source

mechanism: not established; the claims describe observed incidence, not a cause
effect: 17.3% absolute transition rate at 18 months (32 transitions in 185 participants); iIR 0.054 at 6 months, 0.130 at 12 months, 0.173 at 18 months; mean time to transition 491.6 days (SE = 10.2)
conditions / moderators: not established; the claims give no comparison group and no treatment arm

Helga Ising (2016), Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291716000325 · https://pure.amsterdamumc.nl/ws/files/172070178/Development-of-a-stage-dependent-prognostic-model-to-predict-psychosis-in-ultra-high-risk-patients-seeking-treatment-for.pdf (retrieved 2026-08-18)